Strategic Comments 2010

Kuwait: signs of renewal Many in Kuwait and beyond regard the emirate as having stagnated since the Iraqi invasion of 1990 and the expulsion of Saddam Hussein’s forces in 1991. Though the oil has continued to flow, an enduring political impasse has held back development of the economy and infrastructure. Frustrated Kuwaitis have watched as other more autocratic Gulf states that lagged behind the emirate before the invasion have caught up or surpassed it. However, there have recently been signs of a growing recognition among leading
Balkan crime jeopardises EU accession hopes Progress is finally being made in the effort to clean up corruption and root out organised crime in the western Balkans. While this should be good news for the people of the region and the ambitions of their leaders to move their countries as swiftly as possible towards joining the European Union, it is also a double-edged sword. Recent evidence of the depth and scale of criminal and corrupt activities have bolstered the arguments of those who believe that these countries have a long way to go before they c
Hizbullah's alleged Scuds raise storm clouds over Lebanon On 13 April 2010 Israeli President Shimon Peres gave public voice to serious Israeli concerns that Syria had recently supplied Scud missiles to Hizbullah in Lebanon. Damascus dismissed the charge as a fabrication designed to justify Israeli aggression against Lebanon, a line echoed by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri. But on 27 April, while not repeating Peres’s specific allegation, United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned of the destabilising impact of such an acquisition by Hizbullah.
Unrest in Thailand indicates deeper problems A crackdown by the Thai authorities on 19 May 2010 finally ended two months of major street protests by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), known as the ‘red shirts’. The protests were part of a wider political crisis that has been raging for nearly five years. Demonstrators were challenging the legitimacy of the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and demanding an election. More fundamentally, however, their actions seemed to be questioning the legitimacy of the Thai state
Elections in Myanmar offer hope of change Myanmar is preparing to hold its first national elections in 20 years. Although no date has been set as yet, the educated guess among Burmese is that they will take place in the last quarter of 2010. The military junta – which is holding the elections primarily to ensure its own survival in the face of widespread and long-running popular dissent, as well as international opprobrium – has passed election laws which have been heavily criticised internationally. Nevertheless, they still offer some hope for cha
US presses ahead with Iran sanctions As part of its effort to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, the United States is seeking to tighten sanctions on it. The US has tabled a draft United Nations Security Council resolution that would place heavy restrictions on Iran’s nuclear industries, military procurement and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Meanwhile, the US Congress is close to finalising its own bill expanding sanctions on Iran, including on those energy companies with significant interests there. In an apparent
Chinese navy's new strategy in action The news from Tokyo on 10 April 2010 that the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force had monitored ten Chinese warships passing 140km south of Okinawa through the Miyako Strait marked a new stage in China’s naval development. The deployment was of unprecedented size and scope for the Chinese navy, and was the second such operation mounted by China in rapid succession: in March, a smaller flotilla had been deployed on exercises. The two sets of exercises, along with Chinese counter-piracy operations in the Gulf o
Nuclear summit strengthens security measures On 12–13 April 2010 United States President Barack Obama hosted the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington DC. The meeting of representatives from 47 countries, including 38 heads of government, was described by Obama as ‘an unprecedented gathering to address an unprecedented threat’. The summit succeeded in its goal of focusing attention on nuclear terrorism and strengthening the global consensus that urgent action is required to prevent it. Its longer-term success will depend on the ability of the internat
Heavy debt after financial crisis threatens further instability Greece’s debt problems indicate that the financial crisis which came to a head in 2008 is not really over, but is still running its course. Initially, prompt actions by governments appeared to have succeeded in averting the outright destruction of the banking system and to have softened its economic consequences. But the heavy debts taken on by Western governments mean they are still exposed to considerable risk.

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