Renewed confidence fuels EU accession hopes
A year ago Serbia’s prospects looked somewhat grim. Blocked on the road to European integration, it was bracing itself for a predicted economic contraction of up to 10%. Its citizens needed visas to travel to most countries outside the region. In a short period, however, things have changed so much that Serbian leaders have taken to claiming that their country is retaking its place as the natural leader of the region.
End of visa regime
Three key events took place in December 2009 in quick succession. Most important was the lifting on 19 December of the visa regime regulating Serbian citizens’ travel throughout Europe’s Schengen zone. This happened after intense work including the installation of a modern border-management system and the introduction of biometric passports. The lifting of the visa regime was politically the most important element of the European integration agenda, because Serbs no longer have to queue at embassies of popular destinations like Greece or Germany.
Another major development had taken place earlier in December 2009 when the Netherlands, which had been blocking Serbia’s EU accession path, finally relented, at least for the time being. In April 2008, in a bid to help the Democratic Party of pro-European President Boris Tadic win a general election on 11 May, EU leaders had granted Serbia a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), widely regarded as the first step towards EU membership. However, at the demand of the Dutch, the SAA was immediately frozen. They insisted that Serbia first find and arrest Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb wartime military commander, who is charged with the murder of some 8,000 Bosnian Muslim (Bosniak) men and boys after the fall of Srebrenica in July 1995. Dutch United Nations troops were supposed to be guarding what had been designated a UN ‘safe area’ at the time.
During 2009 the Netherlands came under strong pressure from other EU members to lift its opposition to Serbia’s SAA. They argued that Serbia’s fate and that of the entire western Balkans could not depend on one man alone. At an EU foreign ministers’ meeting on 8 December, the Dutch agreed to the EU implementing what is called the Interim Trade Agreement, which has to come into force before members ratify the SAA. The question of ratification, however, was left for another six months. The Dutch concession was made possible by Serge Brammertz, the chief prosecutor of the UN’s Yugoslav war-crimes tribunal, who reported that he was satisfied that the Serbs were doing all they could to find Mladic and Goran Hadzic, a former Croatian Serb leader who is also on the run.
Delighted by this double success, the Serbian government on 22 December lodged a formal application for candidate status for EU membership. To do so without having a fully ratified SAA was unprecedented, but Serbian officials pointed out that there was no rule to say it could not be done. Belgrade hopes to win EU candidate status by the end of 2010. While talk of all the western Balkan states joining the EU as early as 2014 seems exaggerated – there would not be time to go through all the required steps – the perception among Serbian officials that they might at last be making progress towards accession will motivate their efforts to push through reforms.
These successes were matched by broader progress in Serbia’s external relations. Tadic, on a visit to China, signed a strategic partnership agreement; he also played host to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and United States Vice President Joe Biden. While Tadic said Serbia’s foreign policy consisted of four pillars – the US, Russia, the EU and China – Belgrade also attempted to assert itself within the western Balkans and to court members of the Non-Aligned Movement. Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic sought to persuade its members not to recognise Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in February 2008.
Some 65 states have recognised Kosovo, the former Serbian province with an overwhelmingly Albanian population. These include the US and 22 out of 27 EU countries, but not Russia, China, India, Brazil, Greece or Spain. In 2008 Serbia persuaded the UN General Assembly to ask the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to give an advisory opinion on Kosovo’s declaration of independence. Hearings began on 1 December 2009, and the opinion is expected to be delivered in 2010. It is likely to be ambiguous because international law on self-determination and secession is unclear. When the opinion is delivered, Jeremic’s plan is to seek a supportive resolution in the UN General Assembly. Rather than reversing Kosovo’s declaration, the goal of the ICJ manoeuvre is to force Kosovo back to the negotiating table to seek an exchange of territories, namely the Serbian-inhabited north of Kosovo for the Albanian-inhabited Presevo valley in Serbia.
Voters unconvinced
Adding to this picture of relative progress is the fact that the economy is in less bad shape than expected. At the end of 2009 Serbia’s statistical office reported that it expected GDP to have shrunk by 2.9% during the year, although others anticipated a contraction of 3.5–4%. Still, the recession was milder than many had feared 12 months previously. In December, Fiat completed a takeover deal giving it a 67% stake in Zastava, Serbia’s car maker which once made the now-defunct Yugo. Zastava had already been producing the Fiat Punto, but this deal, which had been planned in 2008 and delayed because of the world financial crisis, signalled renewed confidence in the economy of Serbia and the region.
However, in the face of Serbia’s progress, voters remain cautious. Opinion polls show them not to be infected by the cheery mood of their rulers. According to a Gallup-European Fund for the Balkans poll conducted in September 2009, 48% had trouble paying their utility bills and only 31% felt satisfied with their standard of living. The proportion of people who thought that the country was moving in the wrong direction increased by 27% in a year to 72%.
After the turmoil of the last 20 years it is perhaps not surprising that Serbs should be sceptical of their leaders. However, one consequence of the period of progress is that the once-mighty extreme nationalist Serbian Radical Party has been consigned to the fringes of politics. Its place has been taken by the Serbian Progressive Party, set up by former Radical leader Tomislav Nikolic. The Progressives have discarded hardcore nationalist and anti-European rhetoric and have positioned themselves as a modern, right-of-centre party. They have taken two important Belgrade municipalities in local elections and the latest opinion polls show them neck and neck with the Democrats. The next major political test is likely to come in 2011 – the best guess is that Tadic may call an election then if Serbia is granted EU candidacy.
