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The Baker–Hamilton Report
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The Iraq Study Group’s insinuation that the situation in Iraq was more bloodily chaotic than the Bush administration had allowed; the assessment that American forces had not stemmed the violence and could not be expected to do so; the proposal to withdraw most troops in a little over a year regardless of what the Iraqi government does; and the endorsement of a highly detailed ‘diplomatic offensive’ all amounted to a comprehensive repudiation of the administration’s policies. Yet, upon its release, the report met heavy criticism from nearly every quarter. If it has any effect on American discourse on the war, it is that the report has now liberated Washingtonians to acknowledge the risk of defeat.
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The view from Baghdad
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The dramatic empowerment of Iraq’s governing elite lies at the heart of the Baker–Hamilton report’s recommendations. With a combination of carrots and sticks, greater and speedier devolution of power, increased funding but also the threat of reduced aid and complete US withdrawal, the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and other key politicians are to become the new state-builders. The response of the Iraqi leadership has been instructive: they have in effect sought to call America’s bluff, not taking seriously either its demands for conditionality or threats of withdrawal.
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Lebanon's crisis
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For the second time in less than five months, Hizbullah has embarked on an escalatory course of action. In taking to the streets of Beirut since 1 December with the declared aim of forcing the resignation of the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, it has clearly opted to force a political showdown. Hizbullah’s behaviour may be the result of the sort of miscalculation that led it into war with Israel on 12 July, or of hubris reinforced by its claim of having achieved victory in that conflict – or both. The struggle to redefine the political role of Lebanon’s large Shia Muslim community and its share in government power has moved closer to centre-stage, posing an implicit challenge to the country’s confessional system.
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Somalia's instability
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The increasingly tense situation in Somalia raises several disturbing possibilities. It could trigger a renewed war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, fertilise a new ‘field of jihad’ attracting foreign fighters to already insecure and unruly territory, or lead to the establishment of a new jihadist base in Somalia. In turn, any or all of these eventualities could prompt UN involvement or intervention by major powers.
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Kosovo's clouded future
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The Balkans are facing a moment of truth. After years of speculation, political manoeuvring and diplomacy, at issue is whether Kosovo will emerge as Europe’s newest state and thus bring to seven the number of countries to have emerged from the wreckage of Yugoslavia. For most of 2006 the vast majority of analysts and western diplomats had assumed that all these things would transpire by the end of the year or very soon afterwards; now, potentially dangerous delays and doubts have set in.
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