International Institute for Strategic Studies Adelphi Archive

The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Wednesday 10 March 2010

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AP 385: Network Centric Warfare Coalition Operations in the Age of US Military Primacy Paul T. Mitchell Since its emergence in 1998, the concept of Network Centric Warfare (NCW) has become a central driver behind America’s military ‘transformation’ and seems to offer the possibility of true integration between multinational military formations. Even though NCW, or variations on its themes, has been adopted by many armed services, it is a concept in operational and doctrinal development. It is shaping not only how...
AP 384: Regulating the Private Security Industry Sarah Percy The under-regulation of the private security industry has increasingly become a topic of media and academic interest. This Adelphi Paper enters the debate by explaining why the industry requires further regulation, and what is wrong with the current system. It begins by briefly defining the industry and explaining the need for more effective regulation, before analysing three types of regulation: domestic, international and informal (including self-regulation). The paper...
AP 383: Nuclear Superiority The ‘new triad’ and the evolution of nuclear strategy David S. McDonough In 2002 the Bush administration completed a Nuclear Posture Review that introduced a ‘new triad’ based on offensive-strike systems, defences and a revitalised defence infrastructure. Designed for a new strategic threat environment, it is characterised not by a long-standing nuclear rivalry with another superpower, but by unstable relationships with rogue-state proliferators, alongside more ambiguous...
AP 382: North Korean Reform Robert L. Carlin and Joel S. Wit While foreign policy and security concerns have trumped past efforts to reform the North Korean economy, Pyongyang is implementing important economic reforms despite renewed tensions with the United States. This is in response to a leadership debate – between ‘reformers’ and ‘conservatives’ over whether Pyongyang’s military industrial complex should be scaled back to help ensure the success of reforms – that is fundamentally transforming the country....
AP 381: Myanmar's Foreign Policy Jürgen Haacke Against the background of its problematic human-rights record and the military regime’s continued extra-constitutional rule, Myanmar has faced mounting diplomatic pressure from the international community since the renewed detention of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in May 2003. This Adelphi Paper examines Myanmar’s foreign policy, which is predicated on state-building and development, as well as defending the regime’s decision to give priority to establishing an enduring...
AP 380: Libya and Nuclear Proliferation Wyn Q. Bowen For over three decades, driven by the core motive of deterring external threats to its security, Libya sought to acquire nuclear weapons. Having attempted but failed to procure them ‘off the shelf’ from several states during the 1970s, by late 2003 it had succeeded in assembling much of the technology required to manufacture them. Nevertheless, following secret negotiations with the UK and US governments, in December 2003 Colonel Muammar Gadhafi resolved to abandon the...
AP 379: Transformation of Strategic Affairs Lawrence Freedman This paper examines the difficulty the US armed forces face in shifting their focus from preparing for regular wars, in which combat is separated from civil society, to irregular wars, in which combat is integrated with civil society. It argues that the political context of contemporary irregular wars requires that the purpose and practice of Western forces be governed by liberal values. This is also the case with regular wars, to the extent that they occur, but...

AP 378: Nuclear Terrorism After 9/11 Robin M. Frost The very mention of nuclear terrorism is enough to rouse strong reactions, and understandably so, because it combines the most terrifying weapons and the most threatening of people in a single phrase. The possibility that terrorists could obtain and use nuclear weapons deserves careful analysis, but discussion has all too often been contaminated with exaggeration, even hysteria. For example, it has been claimed that nuclear terrorism poses an ‘existential threat’ to the...
AP 377: Revitalising US–Russian Security Richard Weitz Russia and the United States are the most important countries for many vital security issues. They possess the world's largest nuclear weapons arsenals, are involved in the principal regional conflicts, and have lead roles in opposing international terrorism and weapons proliferation. Despite persistent differences on many questions, mutual interests consistently drive Russians and Americans to work together to overcome these impediments. This Adelphi Paper argues...
AP 376: The Proliferation Security Initiative Mark J. Valencia The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), launched by US President Bush in May 2003, is intended to prevent traffic in elements of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Most WMD traffic moves by sea, and the focus of the PSI is on maritime interdictions and seizures. Although the PSI has had some significant successes, it has been criticised for lacking sufficient public accountability, stretching international law to the limits, undermining the UN system, potentially...
AP 375: Protracted Refugee Situations Gil Loescher and James Milner Protracted refugee populations not only constitute over 70% of the world’s refugees but are also a principal source of many of the irregular movements of people around the world today. The long-term presence of refugee populations in much of the developing world has come to be seen by many host states in these regions as a source of insecurity. In response, host governments have enacted policies of containing refugees in isolated and insecure camps,...
AP 374: Turkey's Policy Toward Northern Iraq Bill Park Iraq’s Kurds are insisting that a federal Iraq grant them high levels of selfgovernment, including control over their own militia and parliament, that the oil-rich Kirkuk area (over which they already exercise considerable informal control) should be formally incorporated into the Kurdish zone, and that the ‘Arabisation’ policies of the former Ba’athist regime should be reversed. Indeed, they already enjoy considerable de facto control over the Kirkuk area. Ankara, for its...
AP 373: Fuelling War Philippe Le Billon A generous endowment of natural resources should favour rapid economic and social development. The experience of countries like Angola and Iraq, however, suggests that resource wealth often proves a curse rather than a blessing. Billions of dollars from resource exploitation benefit repressive regimes and rebel groups, at a massive cost for local populations. This Adelphi Paper analyses the economic and political vulnerability of resource-dependent countries; assesses...
AP 372: Iraq's Future Toby Dodge It is hard to over-estimate what is at stake in Iraq today. The removal of Saddam Hussein has proved to be the beginning not the culmination of a long and very uncertain process of state building. This Adelphi Paper examines the process of state building now underway in Iraq from a military, political and sociological perspective. Possible futures for Iraq are charted firstly by studying the evolution of the criminal and politically motivated violence that has come to...
AP 371: Border security in the Balkans Alice Hills Borders dominate the security agenda in South-east Europe. Political and ethnic discontents focus on disputed borders, while traffickers in migrants and drugs ignore them. The EU argues that the Balkan countries should develop models of border management using its policing standards, but the region is rife with corruption and its border guards are both under-resourced and ineffective. This Paper asks how and why border management in South-east Europe is developing as it...

AP 370: WMD and International Order William Walker How should the ‘problem of order’ associated with weapons of mass destruction be understood and addressed today? Have the problem and its solution been misconceived and misrepresented, as manifested by the problematic aftermath of Iraq War? Has 9/11 rendered redundant past international ordering strategies, or are these still discarded at our own peril? These are the questions explored in this Adelphi Paper. It opens by focusing attention on the linked problems of...
AP 368-9: Japan's Re-emergence Christopher W. Hughes Is Japan re-emerging as a ‘normal’, or even a great, military power in regional and global security affairs? This Adelphi Paper assesses the overall trajectory of...
AP 367: Counter-terrorism Jonathan Stevenson The 9/11 attacks revealed that the transnational terrorist threat facing the US and its partners was far more dangerous than most had previously discerned. It was now clear that al-Qaeda intended to, and could threaten the West’s – particularly the US’ – political and military leverage, with the aim of shifting the balance of power from the West to Islam after a violent global confrontation. In that sense, the new terrorist threat is strategic, and it has led to a...
AP 366: Syria under Bashar al-Asad Volker Perthes In the summer of 2000, Bashar al-Asad inherited the presidency of Syria from his father, the long-ruling Hafiz al-Asad. This Paper evaluates the capacity of the new leadership to meet growing societal, economic, political and foreign policy demands. Halfway through Bashar al-Asad’s first term, Syria finds itself in a rapidly changing regional environment. The country is undergoing a process of economic change which, in the long run, may add up to a full...
AP 365: Reshaping Defence Andrew Cottey and Anthony Forster Over the last decade there have been major changes in patterns of international defence diplomacy. Defence diplomacy – peacetime military cooperation and assistance – has traditionally been used for realpolitik purposes of strengthening allies against common enemies. Since the early 1990s, however, the Western democracies have increasingly used defence diplomacy for a range of new purposes. These include strategic engagement with former or potential...
AP 364: Somalia: State Collapse Ken Menkhaus Close analysis of how non-state actors adapt to state collapse is critical for effective peacebuilding, development, and counter-terrorism strategies in those crises. In Somalia, the nature of state collapse has changed significantly since 1995. Armed conflict is more localised; lawlessness is better contained by local authorities; and warlords have been weakened by an emerging commercial elite whose interests lie in stability, not plunder. Risk-aversion drives political...
AP 363: Human Rights and Counter-terrorism Rosemary Foot Since 11 September 2001, President George W. Bush’s administration has argued that when governments respect both the rule of law and human rights they contribute to a world where terrorism cannot thrive. For this reason, as well as its commitment to promote its own values, the US claims that it will not relax its efforts to advance human rights. However, since 11 September the US has often apparently compromised its stance on human rights promotion abroad,...

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