2005 Adelphi Papers

AP 378: Nuclear Terrorism After 9/11 Robin M. Frost The very mention of nuclear terrorism is enough to rouse strong reactions, and understandably so, because it combines the most terrifying weapons and the most threatening of people in a single phrase. The possibility that terrorists could obtain and use nuclear weapons deserves careful analysis, but discussion has all too often been contaminated with exaggeration, even hysteria. For example, it has been claimed that nuclear terrorism poses an 'existential threat' to the...
AP 377: Revitalising US–Russian Security Richard Weitz Russia and the United States are the most important countries for many vital security issues. They possess the world's largest nuclear weapons arsenals, are involved in the principal regional conflicts, and have lead roles in opposing international terrorism and weapons proliferation. Despite persistent differences on many questions, mutual interests consistently drive Russians and Americans to work together to overcome these impediments. This Adelphi Paper argues...
AP 376: The Proliferation Security Initiative Mark J. Valencia The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), launched by US President Bush in May 2003, is intended to prevent traffic in elements of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Most WMD traffic moves by sea, and the focus of the PSI is on maritime interdictions and seizures. Although the PSI has had some significant successes, it has been criticised for lacking sufficient public accountability, stretching international law to the limits, undermining the UN system, potentially...
AP 375: Protracted Refugee Situations Gil Loescher and James Milner Protracted refugee populations not only constitute over 70% of the world's refugees but are also a principal source of many of the irregular movements of people around the world today. The long-term presence of refugee populations in much of the developing world has come to be seen by many host states in these regions as a source of insecurity. In response, host governments have enacted policies of containing refugees in isolated and insecure camps,...
AP 374: Turkey's Policy Toward Northern Iraq Bill Park Iraq's Kurds are insisting that a federal Iraq grant them high levels of selfgovernment, including control over their own militia and parliament, that the oil-rich Kirkuk area (over which they already exercise considerable informal control) should be formally incorporated into the Kurdish zone, and that the 'Arabisation' policies of the former Ba'athist regime should be reversed. Indeed, they already enjoy considerable de facto control over the Kirkuk area. Ankara, for its...
AP 373: Fuelling War Philippe Le Billon A generous endowment of natural resources should favour rapid economic and social development. The experience of countries like Angola and Iraq, however, suggests that resource wealth often proves a curse rather than a blessing. Billions of dollars from resource exploitation benefit repressive regimes and rebel groups, at a massive cost for local populations. This Adelphi Paper analyses the economic and political vulnerability of resource-dependent countries; assesses...
AP 372: Iraq's Future Toby Dodge It is hard to over-estimate what is at stake in Iraq today. The removal of Saddam Hussein has proved to be the beginning not the culmination of a long and very uncertain process of state building. This Adelphi Paper examines the process of state building now underway in Iraq from a military, political and sociological perspective. Possible futures for Iraq are charted firstly by studying the evolution of the criminal and politically motivated violence that has come to...
AP 371: Border security in the Balkans Alice Hills Borders dominate the security agenda in South-east Europe. Political and ethnic discontents focus on disputed borders, while traffickers in migrants and drugs ignore them. The EU argues that the Balkan countries should develop models of border management using its policing standards, but the region is rife with corruption and its border guards are both under-resourced and ineffective. This Paper asks how and why border management in South-east Europe is developing as it...